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Tag Archives: Rationality

What are the Chances: Of a Swine Infestation? Part 1

“The time has come,” The Walrus said, “To speak of many things…” In particular, to talk about the probability that you or I may keel over tomorrow because of ‘the dreaded swine flu’. We, as a species, are absolutely appalling at estimating the probability of highly unlikely events (called ‘long-tailed events – because they occur […]